Laplace's Rule of Succession

This is a short article on Laplace's rule of succession. The rule is derived in the context of a ball and urn model. Specifically, there are $N + 1$ urns and urn $k$ contains $k$ red and $N - k$ blue balls. An urn is chosen at random and then balls are selected at random from that urn. Laplace's rule is an approximation of the probability that the $n + 1$ ball is red given $n$ consecutive red balls.
Identifier:
http://www.cut-the-knot.org/Probability/RuleOfSuccession.shtml
Rating:
Creator(s):
Alexander Bogomolny
Cataloger:
Kyle Siegrist
Publisher:
Cut-the-knot
Rights:
Copyright Alexander Bogomolny. The HTML page can be accessed and linked to, but not copied or used in other works.